Hi
@JuliusCoolius,
You’ve set up a strong starting point for rethinking Mesoblast’s valuation now that they’ve entered the commercial stage with Ryoncil. For a long time, this company’s fate was measured by clinical milestones and hopeful pipeline projections. Now, with FDA approval of Ryoncil (remestemcel-L) in pediatric steroid-refractory acute graft-versus-host disease (aGVHD), we can start blending those traditional hopes with something more tangible—actual product revenue.
About the Pediatric aGVHD Market and Potential Pricing:
The fact that Ryoncil is approved down to two months of age is a big deal. We always knew it was “pediatric,” but many probably assumed an older child population. This wider age range instantly broadens the addressable market. Even more importantly, since Jakafi (ruxolitinib) is only approved for kids 12 and older, Ryoncil essentially owns the under-12 segment. That could give it a real edge right out of the gate. And because treating very young patients is a serious responsibility, doctors and hospitals are likely to embrace a therapy with a solid efficacy and safety profile.In terms of pricing, $800,000 per course sounds like it might be on the high side—even though the market might support something in the range of a few hundred thousand dollars, given that it’s a life-saving, highly specialized therapy. Mesoblast should provide more clarity on pricing soon. The good news is that even a slight bump up from earlier assumptions, combined with a bigger-than-expected patient population, could mean meaningful revenue.
Market Share and Growth Potential:
Your guess of Ryoncil capturing around 50% of the pediatric aGVHD market within a couple of years seems reasonable. Younger kids, for whom Ryoncil is basically the only approved option, might start on it quickly. For older pediatric patients (closer to 12), there may be more competition and some inertia in switching therapies, but if Ryoncil shows better outcomes over time, it could eventually grab more share there as well.Off-label use in adults is a wild card. It could happen, but without direct approval for adult indications, it’s tough to count on it. If Mesoblast goes after an adult label later, that’s a bonus that could significantly ramp up the numbers.
Cost Structure and Profitability:
On the expense side, we know Mesoblast has built up some inventory in advance, which might help early manufacturing costs. There will certainly be SG&A expenses (like marketing and distribution), but given the specialised nature of this product, Mesoblast probably doesn’t need a massive sales team blanketing the whole country. They can focus on the relatively small number of specialized transplant centers. Also, the company’s years of R&D spending and accumulated tax losses should help minimise taxes for now.
Longer-Term Value Beyond Ryoncil:
While Ryoncil’s revenue sets a more concrete “floor” under the company’s value, the real upside still lies in Mesoblast’s pipeline. Revascor, aimed at advanced heart failure, and other potential indications for Ryoncil could dwarf the pediatric aGVHD market if they cross the finish line. Heart failure is a huge market. Success here could transform Mesoblast from a small specialty player into a major force in regenerative medicine.If Mesoblast can prove Ryoncil’s safety and efficacy in other inflammatory conditions or in adults, that could keep revenue growing and further boost valuation. Each new approval would not only drive sales but also build trust with physicians, payors, and patients, strengthening the entire platform.
Bottom Line:
• Ryoncil’s approval moves Mesoblast into commercial territory, giving investors a more standard way to value the company.
• The pediatric aGVHD market, especially with patients as young as two months, could be larger and more accessible than initially thought.
• Pricing details will come soon, but either way, Ryoncil provides a meaningful revenue baseline.
• Beyond Ryoncil, the pipeline—especially Revascor—is where the truly transformative value lies.
As those products advance, the revenue “floor” created by Ryoncil could be just the beginning.This is a critical moment for Mesoblast: Ryoncil gives them credibility and a revenue stream, while their pipeline still holds the potential for game-changing upside. The numbers will get clearer as the launch unfolds, but for now, Ryoncil’s approval is a big step forward.
Glad we don’t have
@Pledge anymore to spew nonsense
All in my opinion
(20min delay)
