Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for November 04 –08, 2024
In October 2024, the U.S. labor market saw limitedmovement, with total nonfarm payroll employment rising by only 12,000 jobs,keeping the unemployment rate steady at 4.1%. Health care and governmentsectors saw continued job growth, while temporary help services andmanufacturing experienced declines, the latter impacted by strike activity.Hurricanes Helene and Milton, which caused significant damage and evacuationsin the southeastern U.S., may have influenced employment figures and datacollection, potentially skewing labor data.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics noted, however, that itcannot quantify the hurricanes' impact on employment shifts. Moreover, thestorms did not visibly affect the unemployment rate. After the data release,the dollar fell sharply by 0.35%, while stock indices and cryptocurrencies sawa recovery. Markets are now anticipating rate cuts in 2025, with expectationsof a 25 basis point reduction at the November and December Federal Reservemeetings.
The U.S. presidential election on November 5th will bea major focal point for the markets next week, likely driving significantvolatility around that date.
EUR/USD
The Euro saw a slight increase over the week, thoughit appears to be struggling to hold onto those gains. Currently, the marketseems likely to remain volatile and move sideways, with prices hovering aroundthe 50-Week EMA.
If the price breaks above the top of previous week’scandlestick, it could face resistance at the 1.10 level. Conversely, the 1.0750level offers strong support and is worth monitoring closely. Should the pricefall below this point, it may target the 1.05 level, which has consistentlyserved as a major support zone over the past few years. Overall, the marketappears to lack clear direction at this stage.
XAU/USD
Escalating geopolitical tensions have led investors toturn to safe-haven assets like gold, fueled by heightened risk aversion andworries about global market stability. Gold has repeatedly set new records thisyear, climbing over 30% amid expectations of further central bank rate cuts andongoing geopolitical uncertainties. According to LSEG data, this marks itsstrongest annual growth since 1979.
Gold had a bullish run past week, but momentum appearsto be slowing. The weekly candlestick reflects some hesitation, indicating thata phase of profit-taking might be near. The $2800 mark, a significantpsychological level, has drawn substantial market interest. Traders shouldmonitor any pullbacks closely, as these may present buying opportunities,particularly around the $2600 level.
BTC/USD
Bitcoin (BTC) saw a gain of over 2% this week untilFriday, with a strong start bringing it close to a new all-time high, followedby a notable decline as signs of profit-taking emerged.
Analysts suggest that Bitcoin might experience apullback in the coming days ahead of the U.S. presidential election, a criticalevent that could shape the regulatory landscape for cryptocurrencies. Thecontinuation of Bitcoin’s recent rally in the short term is closely tied to theelection results, with many traders believing that a victory for formerPresident Donald Trump could result in more favorable regulatory conditions forthe crypto market.
If BTC continues its decline and closes below the$69,500 mark, it could potentially fall over 5% to test the next key support at$66,000, aligning closely with the breakout point of the downward-slopingparallel channel pattern near $65,800 on the weekly chart. However, if Bitcoinstays above $69,500, it may attempt to retest and possibly break through itsall-time high of $73,777.
NordFXAnalytical Group
Notice: These materials are not investmentrecommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intendedfor informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and canresult in a complete loss of deposited funds.
