Forex and CryptocurrencyForecast for November 25 – 29, 2024
As we step into the last week ofNovember, global financial markets are grappling with a mix of challenges andopportunities. Geopolitical developments, including the escalation of theRussia-Ukraine conflict, are intensifying risk aversion among investors,driving demand for traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and the USdollar. At the same time, market participants are closely watching the U.S.Federal Reserve, where speculation about a potential rate cut is gainingtraction due to softening inflation and mixed economic data. In Europe, theECB's cautious approach and persistent economic sluggishness are keeping theeuro under pressure, while cryptocurrencies continue to attract attention amidgrowing institutional interest, even as regulatory uncertainties persist.
Against this backdrop, major tradinginstruments like EUR/USD, XAU/USD, and BTC/USD are exhibiting distinctivetrends. The interplay of macroeconomic forces and technical patterns in theseinstruments suggests both opportunities and risks for traders in the weekahead. Below is a detailed analysis of their forecasted movements.
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD currencypair is trading around 1.0400, navigating a broader sideways channel that hasdominated its trend in recent months. Despite the current bearish momentum, thepair remains in a state of consolidation, with significant resistance at 1.0685and support at 1.0345. Moving averages reinforce the bearish sentiment, showingdownward pressure as prices have broken below key signal lines. However, apotential rebound from the 1.0345 level could serve as a catalyst for recovery,targeting the upper boundary of the range near 1.0685.This week's forecast suggests a retestof the 1.0345 support zone, where a rebound is likely. A breakout above 1.0535would confirm bullish momentum and signal a move towards 1.0685. Conversely, asustained break below 1.0045 could invalidate this recovery scenario and pavethe way for a deeper decline towards 0.9865. Technical indicators, includingthe relative strength index (RSI), provide additional signals, with a reboundfrom oversold levels potentially supporting the upside case.
XAU/USD
Gold prices remain robust, currentlytrading near $2,700 per ounce, underpinned by heightened geopolitical tensionsand speculation about a softer U.S. monetary policy. The precious metal hasbeen moving within a strong bullish channel, with prices breaking above thearea between key signal lines on moving averages, signalling robust demand.While the long-term trend points to continued upward movement, a short-termcorrective pullback toward the $2,485 support level may occur before anotherleg higher.
The forecast for the week suggests thatgold will test $2,485, followed by a rebound targeting $3,125. The RSIindicator and the bullish channel's lower boundary are expected to act as keysupport zones. However, a break below $2,435 would invalidate the bullishscenario, indicating a shift in momentum and opening the door for furtherdeclines to $2,345. A confirmed breakout above $2,755 would reinforce bullishsentiment and signal a resumption of the upward trend.
BTC/USD
Bitcoin continues its impressive rally,closing last week near $98,790 and maintaining its trajectory within awell-defined ascending channel. The cryptocurrency is benefiting from increaseddemand as a hedge against inflation and fiat currency instability. Movingaverages indicate a sustained bullish trend, though short-term corrections arelikely as the asset consolidates its recent gains.
This week, a pullback toward $91,305 isexpected, followed by a potential bounce targeting $116,505. A breakout abovethe resistance level of $102,505 would confirm the bullish continuation, whilea drop below $80,505 would invalidate this outlook and signal a deepercorrection towards $72,605. Technical indicators, such as RSI, show potentialsupport for an upward rebound, but traders should remain vigilant for suddenshifts, which are typical in the cryptocurrency market.
NordFX Analytical Group
Notice:These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working infinancial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading infinancial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of depositedfunds.
