The market woke up and realized rates are high, liquidity is drying up and Powell is still serious about not cutting as much as what is desired.
NASDAQ down over 2%
S&P 500 down 1.4%
Russell 2000 down 1.87%
10-year yield: 4.583%
RECESSION TELL - my bet: end of 2025 The problem - to market returns and jobs - is not when these spreads turn negative (invert), but when they dis-invert (turn positive), as this chart illustrates. As a reminder, inversion signals future recession risk but is not a timing tool. Only AFTER the curve normalizes, is it a timing tool.
